The Sweet 16 is set, and MyGameSim has run 100 simulations on the updated 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket to see how things might unfold from here. While there is no shortage of contenders, the numbers paint a clear picture of where the strength lies and which teams are best positioned to make a run to the Final Four and beyond.

The East Region stands out as the toughest group remaining. Even with Duke holding the title of number one overall seed, this region is loaded with serious competition in Michigan State, St. John’s, and Connecticut. According to the simulations, Michigan State actually comes out on top most often, winning the national title in 17 of 100 runs. Duke and Michigan are not far behind in overall title chances, but the depth in this region makes every matchup feel like a coin flip. Michigan State also shows up frequently in the Final Four and championship game simulations, reinforcing the idea that they may be the most complete team in this bracket.

Duke still has a strong path, appearing in the championship game 28 times and reaching the Final Four 35 times, but they are far from a lock to advance. St. John’s and Connecticut are more long shot contenders, though both show enough presence in the simulations to suggest they could break through with the right run.

In the South Region, the story is balance. Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, and Houston all have paths forward, but none dominate the simulations the way teams in other regions do. Nebraska and Illinois show up consistently in the championship game mix, with Nebraska reaching it 12 times and Illinois 11. Houston lags slightly behind but still appears in the Final Four 22 times, making them a viable sleeper. This region feels wide open, with no clear favorite but several teams capable of making a push.

The West Region is led by Purdue and Arizona, with Purdue standing out as one of the strongest teams overall. Purdue reaches the Final Four in 52 simulations and the championship game 28 times, tying them with some of the top contenders across all regions. They also win the title in 16 simulations, putting them right in the mix with Michigan State and Duke. Arizona is not far behind in terms of Final Four appearances and remains a legitimate threat, while Arkansas and Texas appear more sporadically and would need a strong run to break through.

In the Midwest Region, Michigan emerges as a major force. They lead all teams with 61 Final Four appearances and reach the championship game 32 times, the highest of any team in the field. Michigan also wins the title in 14 simulations, placing them firmly among the top contenders. Tennessee and Iowa State show moderate presence, especially Iowa State with 11 championship game appearances, but neither matches Michigan’s consistency. Alabama appears occasionally but remains more of a long shot compared to the others in this region.

Looking across all four regions, a few teams clearly rise to the top. Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, and Michigan are the most likely to make the Final Four based on the simulation data. When it comes to reaching the championship game, Michigan and Duke lead the way, with Purdue and Michigan State close behind. For winning it all, Michigan State holds a slight edge, followed closely by Duke and Purdue, with Michigan right in the mix.

If the simulations are any indication, this tournament is shaping up for a strong finish with multiple heavyweights on a collision course. The East may be the toughest path, but the eventual champion is just as likely to come from the Midwest or West, where Michigan and Purdue continue to stand out as consistent performers.