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Week 3 has one real top-10 game, two other ranked matchups, and a long list of name-brand favorites the market has already decided. The stored boards do not agree with all of those decisions. No. 7 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss is the game, and the simulations like the home team. No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech is a coin flip in a building the line treats as a fortress. A few Saturday favorites, Alabama and Notre Dame included, are not covering anything like the number on the board.
There are only three ranked-versus-ranked games on the ESPN Week 3 slate. Everything else is a brand name on a big window, or an unranked game that is closer than the television map suggests. Kickoffs below are Eastern.
| Game | When | TV | ESPN line | Sim score | Sim win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU at Ole Miss | Sat 7:30 p.m. | ABC | LSU -3, 58.5 | Ole Miss 39-33 | Ole Miss 71% |
| Houston at Texas Tech | Fri 8:00 p.m. | FOX | Texas Tech -7.5 | Texas Tech 32-32 | Texas Tech 53% |
| SMU at Louisville | Sat 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2 | Louisville -1.5, 59.5 | Louisville 41-34 | Louisville 70% |
| Florida at Auburn | Sat 7:00 p.m. | ESPN | Florida -2.5, 53.5 | Florida 40-32 | Florida 74% |
| North Carolina at Clemson | Sat noon | ESPN | Clemson -3.5, 43.5 | UNC 24-22 | UNC 60% |
| Florida State at Alabama | Sat 3:30 p.m. | ABC | Alabama -19.5, 48.5 | Alabama 28-22 | Alabama 71% |
| Georgia at Arkansas | Sat noon | ABC | Georgia -24.5, 54.5 | Georgia 45-16 | Georgia 100% |
| Michigan State at Notre Dame | Sat 7:30 p.m. | NBC | Notre Dame -29.5, 51.5 | Notre Dame 27-27 | Notre Dame 53% |
LSU is 2-0 and has the best result of September so far: 51-10 over Clemson, then 45-14 over Louisiana Tech. Ole Miss is also 2-0, but the signature win is a 41-38 escape against Louisville, followed by 41-9 over Charlotte. ESPN has LSU as a 3-point road favorite with a 58.5 total. The stored line on our schedule is Ole Miss -1.5.
The 140-run board sides with the home team: Ole Miss 39.3, LSU 33.0, Ole Miss winning 99 of 140. That is a six-point home lean, not a blowout. Forty-three of those runs were one-score games, and eight went to overtime. If you watch one game Saturday night, this is it. ABC, 7:30 p.m., Vaught-Hemingway.
The other ranked collision is Friday night in Lubbock. Houston is No. 22 and 2-0. Texas Tech is No. 13 and 2-0, a year after winning the Big 12. The resumes are thinner than the rankings. Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 at home and Southern 77-6. Texas Tech beat Abilene Christian 33-10 and the same Oregon State team 35-24 on the road. ESPN has Texas Tech -7.5 on FOX at 8 p.m.
The 380-run board is a toss-up: Texas Tech 32.4, Houston 31.8, Tech winning 200 of 380. One hundred fifty-seven runs were close. That is the widest honest disagreement on the weekend between a ranked home favorite and the simulations. Our stored line is even more bullish on Tech (-13.5) than ESPN. The model is not.
The other Friday window is easier to call and still worth the first hour. No. 5 Miami is 2-0 after 45-6 at Stanford and 77-7 over Florida A&M. Wake Forest is also 2-0, and the second win was a real one: 38-36 at Purdue. ESPN has Miami -20.5 at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN. The board has Miami winning 356 of 380, 42.9-26.0. Miami should win. The number is the only debate, and the simulations do not clear 20.
Clemson is not ranked. Neither is North Carolina. ESPN still has this at noon on ESPN, Clemson -3.5, with a 43.5 total. That total is the tell. This is not a track meet.
Clemson is 1-1. The loss was 51-10 at LSU. The win was 22-7 over Georgia Southern. North Carolina is 2-0, and the opener was a 15-10 win at TCU. The 200-run board has UNC 24.1, Clemson 21.9, UNC winning 119 of 200. Our stored line still has Clemson -9.5. The market has already moved toward the Tar Heels. The simulations have moved past the market.
No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville is the ACC game that should actually be tight on television and is not a coin flip in the simulations. SMU is 2-0, and the result that matters is 27-24 at Florida State. Louisville is 1-1 after losing 41-38 at Ole Miss, then beating Villanova 59-13. ESPN has Louisville -1.5 with a 59.5 total, ESPN2 at 3:30 p.m. The board has Louisville 40.8, SMU 34.3, Louisville winning 98 of 140. That is a home lean of about a touchdown, not a pick'em.
No. 25 Virginia plays West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. on ACC Network, and it is not in Charlottesville. ESPN has the game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, Virginia -10.5. Both teams are 2-0. Virginia's opener was 34-8 over NC State. West Virginia's best win is 31-24 over Coastal Carolina. The board has Virginia 30.6-21.9, winning 117 of 140. That margin sits right on the number.
Two unranked SEC teams, both 2-0, both with very different Septembers. Florida has scored 66 and 52, against Florida Atlantic and Campbell. Auburn needed 17-16 to get past Baylor, then handled Southern Miss 43-8. ESPN has Florida -2.5 on ESPN at 7 p.m., one window before LSU-Ole Miss. The board is more decisive than the line: Florida 39.7, Auburn 31.7, Florida winning 103 of 140. Our stored line actually has Auburn -1.5. The simulations are with the Gators, and by more than a field goal.
Florida State at No. 10 Alabama is the 3:30 p.m. ABC game, and it is a watch because of the number, not because it projects as a classic. Alabama is 2-0 after 48-10 over East Carolina and 45-17 at Kentucky. Florida State is 1-1 after beating New Mexico State and losing at home to SMU, 27-24. ESPN has Alabama -19.5 with a 48.5 total. The board has Alabama winning, 28.2-21.8, in 100 of 140 runs. That is a one-score game. It is not a 20-point game. If you are watching the window, watch whether Florida State is still in it after halftime. The simulations say yes more often than the line does.
The same pattern shows up an hour later on the SEC Network, and earlier in the same window. No. 9 Texas A&M hosts Kentucky at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN. A&M is 2-0, including 48-20 over Arizona State. Kentucky just lost 45-17 to Alabama at home. ESPN has A&M -16.5. The board has A&M 28.8-20.9, winning 112 of 140. Take the win. Do not take the cover as a given.
No. 2 Georgia at Arkansas opens the ABC tripleheader at noon, Georgia -24.5. Georgia is 2-0 and has not been tested: 63-3 over Tennessee State, 70-20 over Western Kentucky. Arkansas is 1-1 after beating North Alabama and losing 43-10 at Utah. The 200-run board is a sweep: Georgia 44.7, Arkansas 15.7, Georgia winning all 200. Six of those runs were close. This is the game the market and the model agree is not a game. It belongs on in the background until LSU-Ole Miss.
No. 1 Texas is in the same category on the television map and not in the simulations. Texas is 2-0 after 59-7 over Texas State and a 24-23 win over Ohio State. ESPN has Texas -30.5 against UTSA at 8 p.m. The board has Texas winning only 90 of 140, 34.8-29.5. That is a statement about how thin the Texas rating still is after one real win, not a prediction that UTSA is about to spring the upset of the year. It is also why Ohio State-Kent State and Indiana-Western Kentucky are not on this list. Those are get-right games. Last week's result that still matters is Texas 24, Ohio State 23.
No. 3 Notre Dame is 2-0 after beating Wisconsin 41-13 and Rice 52-0. Michigan State is 2-0 after beating Toledo 30-20 and Eastern Michigan 35-7. ESPN has Notre Dame -29.5 on NBC at 7:30 p.m., same window as LSU-Ole Miss. The 140-run board is 27.1-27.4, Notre Dame winning 74, Michigan State 66. Fifty-six runs were close.
Treat that as a disagreement, not a verdict. Two games against Wisconsin, Rice, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan are not a 30-point sample, and they are not a coin-flip sample either. The market is pricing name and roster. The stored board is not. If Michigan State is within two scores in the third quarter, the simulations were closer to the game than the number was. If Notre Dame is up 21 at halftime, the early-season rating was slow. Either way, do not miss LSU-Ole Miss to watch the first quarter of this one.
The rest of the ranked slate is a favorite laying four touchdowns or more: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, Texas. Those are not games to watch unless you already care about the favorite. The weekend that is worth the time is LSU at Ole Miss, Houston at Texas Tech, Florida at Auburn, and North Carolina at Clemson. Start with the Week 3 prediction board if you want the full set of runs, not just the windows on ABC.
